International Consultancy - Mainstreaming the Demographic Dividend into National Youth Policies ...

How you can make a difference:

UNFPA is the lead UN agency for delivering a world where every pregnancy is wanted, every childbirth is safe and every young person's potential is fulfilled. UNFPA's strategic plan () reaffirms the relevance of the current strategic direction and focuses on three transformative results: to end preventable maternal deaths; end unmet need for family planning; and end gender based violence and harmful practices. These results capture our strategic commitments on accelerating progress towards realizing the ICPD and SDGs in the Decade of Action leading up to 2030. Our strategic plan calls upon UN Member States, organizations and individuals to "build forward better", while addressing the negative impacts of the Covid 19 pandemic on women's and girls' access to sexual and reproductive health and reproductive rights, recover lost gains and realize our goals.

In a world where fundamental human rights are at risk, we need principled and ethical staff who embody these international norms and standards, and who will defend them courageously and with full conviction.

UNFPA is seeking candidates that transform, inspire and deliver high impact and sustained results; we need staff who are transparent, exceptional in how they manage the resources entrusted to them and who commit to deliver excellence in programme results.

Background The East and Southern Africa (ESA) region is experiencing a pivotal population transition, with the total population anticipated to reach 1.1 billion by 2050. Approximately 33% of this population consists of young people aged 10-24, presenting a transient opportunity to capitalise on a Demographic Dividend (DD)-the rapid economic development resulting from a shift in age distribution where the working age population surpasses dependents.

However, this dividend is not automated. It necessitates a swift decrease in fertility rates alongside targeted investments in health, education, and economic reforms to convert human capital into sustained growth and productivity. Current development strategies often lack alignment with demographic realities, sometimes failing to connect population data-such as fertility rates and migration trends-to infrastructure projects and sectoral financial allocations.

Effective planning must therefore move beyond static census data. By leveraging demographic intelligence through megatrends and predictive modelling, stakeholders can illustrate the "cost of inaction" relative to a prospective dividend scenario. This approach ensures the youth population is converted from a dependency challenge into a catalyst for sustainable growth. The Safeguard Young People (SYP) program, executed by UNFPA and its partners, is strategically positioned to advance this initiative through the "3Es" framework: Education, Employment, and Empowerment.

Rationale Although most SYP countries have established national demographic dividend (DD) profiles using frameworks such as DemDiv and National Transfer Accounts (NTA), a critical disparity persists between diagnostic findings and policy execution. Current youth policies frequently lack targeted investment cases and predictive modelling that connect demographic shifts to concrete economic outcomes.

While high adolescent birth rates and youth unemployment are recognised barriers to transformation, there is a failure to acknowledge the fleeting nature of this demographic window. Without immediate, multi sectoral intervention, the current "youth bulge" will shift from a potential dividend to a permanent dependency burden. This consultancy serves as the "missing link" by transforming static census data into forward looking implementation roadmaps through megatrend analysis.

Leveraging the DD necessitates a strategy that transcends the singular ministry typically responsible for youth development. To bridge this operational gap, the consultancy will focus on:

• Inter Ministerial Integration: Facilitating coordination between the Ministries of Finance, Health, Planning, and Education.
• Sectoral Mainstreaming: Delivering specific guidelines to ensure demographic intelligence is embedded across all relevant sectors.
• National Ownership: Establishing robust mechanisms to ensure that the DD agenda is driven and sustained by national governments beyond the consultancy period.

Scope of work Under the overall supervision of the Technical Advisor, Population Data Policy, the selected individual will perform the following tasks:

• Evidence generation (20 days in a month)
  • Analyse age structures: identify the youth bulge to determine if the country is positioned for a demographic dividend.
  • Spatial analysis: disaggregate data by province and settlement type (rural vs. urban) to align infrastructure investment with migration trends and urbanisation.
  • Utilise megatrends: move beyond static census data to population projections and megatrend modelling to anticipate future service demand (e.g., school quotas, healthcare).
  • Gap (SWOT) analysis: conduct assessments of current Integrated Development Plans (IDPs) to identify missing demographic variables such as fertility rates, teenage pregnancy, and migration statistics.
• Strategic alignment (the Demographic Dividend framework) (additional 20 days in a month)
  • Align demographic data with the four key pillars of the AU Roadmap: Employment/Entrepreneurship, Education/Skills, Health/Wellbeing, and Rights/Governance.
  • Explicitly link the working age population growth to economic policies that foster job creation.
• Mainstreaming DD into the youth policies implementation roadmap (additional 20 days in a month)
  • Prepare a referencing document that guides the process and minimum requirements for mainstreaming DD into youth policies.

Deliverables

• Inception report: a document detailing the assessment for proposed countries and the technique for incorporating demographic intelligence into National Development Plans (NDPs).
• Integrated Development Plan (IDP) gap assessment
• Demographic Intelligence report: a high level analytical report utilising megatrends and predictive modelling to forecast future service demands (school quotas, healthcare needs).
• Spatial analysis brief: a data visualisation output disaggregating trends by province and settlement type (rural vs. urban) to guide infrastructure investment.
• Policy evaluation report - (SWOT) analysis.
• Strategic alignment (the Demographic Dividend framework)
• AU Roadmap alignment matrix
• Youth analytical report
• Recommendations for improving youth policy
• Sectoral mainstreaming guidelines
• Policy dialogue and consultation reports
• Stakeholder mapping
• Dialogue concept notes & materials
• Guideline for mainstreaming DD into youth policies
  • A roadmap that is useful for planning, implementation and sustainability
  • Country Specific TORs, reports, and process documentations
  • Final consultancy report

Duration and working schedule The assignment is scheduled from June 1 to December 31, 2026. The total commitment is 60 working days, which will be spread across the period based on the completion of specific deliverables.

Place where services are to be delivered The consultancy is home based, though travel to SYP countries and the ESARO region may be required.

Delivery dates and how work will be delivered All deliverables must be submitted between June 1 and December 31, 2026. Specific timelines include:

• Evidence generation (Outputs per country) - June 26, 2026
• Strategic alignment (the Demographic Dividend framework and Policy gap assessment output per country) - July 30, 2026
• Youth policy revision implementation plan (For each country indicating outlines of the youth policy revisions; review process; etc) - November 30, 2026

Monitoring and progress control, including reporting requirements, periodicity format and deadline Work progress will be monitored by the Technical Advisor for Population Data Policy at UNFPA ESARO, alongside the Program Monitoring Specialist and Population Data Analyst. The consultant will operate under the overall guidance of the Technical Advisor.

Supervisory arrangements UNFPA ESARO Technical Advisor for Population Data Policy at UNFPA ESARO, alongside the Program Monitoring Specialist and Population Data Analyst.

Expected travel Pre approved travel is expected, and a tentative plan should be included in the interpretation of the ToR.

Required expertise, qualifications and competencies, including language requirements Masters degree (7 years of experience) and PhD (5 years of experience) in Social science; demography; public health; statistics; etc.

• Abilities to generate, understand, and apply demographic data for policy and planning: demographic and statistical analysis; strong ability to analyse population data (censuses, surveys, administrative records, DHS, etc.) to discern trends such as fertility, mortality, migration and age structure.
• Expertise in statistical software (e.g., SPSS, Stata, R) and data modelling methodologies for population forecasts and scenario analysis-essential for predicting demographic shifts and their implications for development.
• Proficiency with demographic instruments such as National Transfer Accounts (NTA), small area estimations, and geospatial data.
• Proficient at constructing and utilising visual dashboards and business intelligence tools (Power BI, Tableau, GIS) to depict demographic metrics for planners and policymakers.
. click apply for full job details